Hello everybody, Happy Easter and welcome to APRIL! Crazy how fast the year is going by!
On the agenda today is March Madness in Vancouver Real Estate, and yep you guessed it.
I cannot stress HOW IMPORTANT it is to look at these market trends right now, not just the factual numbers. The numbers are important yes, but the underlying trends are the most important part right now. Too many people get caught up in the here and now. Only to get “blindsided” when the market changes. If they’d paid attention between the lines, they would have seen the shift coming.
With that being said, let’s get the numbers out of the way shall we? I’m going to blast through this because it’s very similar to what we’ve been seeing for the most part, and I want to focus on the important areas more.
Sales are down 42.5% from March 2022 to March 2023. Shock horror, we’re down alot. There is more to this which I’ll cover later. Beyond that, new listings are down 35.5% for the same period.
Here’s why I don’t care about these numbers at face value. They suggest the market is absolutely tanking. I mean take a look at media channels, on one hand they’ll report on sales being ridiculously low so the market has crashed, and on the other talk about how hard it is to purchase a home. As separate points they add zero value and just confuse people. This is why the trends are what matter most! I can’t stress this enough, especially now.
If you’re sitting there thinking you wanna get ahead of the market and catch it at it’s bottom, consider me a neon sign in your face!! Now here is where it gets interesting …
The Home Price Index, basically the average cost for a home in Metro Vancouver, sits at $1,143,900. Why is that relevant? Because it’s an increase of 1.8% from February, which was a 1.1% increase from January.
Our sales to active listings ratio, which basically determines the ratio between available properties and sales in the form of a percentage point, sits at 30.7%. Just to show how mental that is, the 20% figure is deemed a sellers market. Again though, don’t look at the number, look at the trend. That figure was 23% in February, which is still sellers market territory i’ll add) and was 13.7% in January. The main point here is the trend upwards of this number, as well as the home price index.
The market is shifting, and by this latest report, we’ve certainly hit bottom and things are moving in the opposite way now. With minimal inventory likely to come to market, it’s only going to get worse. Leading the way once again for happy sellers, frustrated buyers.
Don’t forget, this is all happening while we have high interest rates, record low supply, and record low sales numbers. The projected outcome for 2023 was a possible uptick in prices by one or two percent for the year. We’ve already notched that out the way 3 months in.
The trend is moving upwards! If you’d just looked at inventory and supply numbers you’d literally be missing out on everything, and in this city, that's a kicker to your wallet to say the least! Ouch!!!
Watch this space the moment we hit higher levels of inventory. I’m making the call today, sales will shift upwards significantly at that point as well. That’s when the masses find out and you’ve missed your real chance.
Finally, before we wrap up. Don’t forget, these numbers are delayed by nature. It’s obviously impossible to gather these figures in real time, so these numbers reflect the market in March. We’re in April now and things have already had the chance to progress further down the path.
That’s it from me today everyone! send me a message if you have questions or want to continue the conversation. You can also check out the video versions of these blogs here! Don't forget to hit like and subscribe!
Ben Robinson PREC*
C: 604.353.8523
E: Ben@benrobinsonhomes.ca
On the agenda today is March Madness in Vancouver Real Estate, and yep you guessed it.
I cannot stress HOW IMPORTANT it is to look at these market trends right now, not just the factual numbers. The numbers are important yes, but the underlying trends are the most important part right now. Too many people get caught up in the here and now. Only to get “blindsided” when the market changes. If they’d paid attention between the lines, they would have seen the shift coming.
With that being said, let’s get the numbers out of the way shall we? I’m going to blast through this because it’s very similar to what we’ve been seeing for the most part, and I want to focus on the important areas more.
Sales are down 42.5% from March 2022 to March 2023. Shock horror, we’re down alot. There is more to this which I’ll cover later. Beyond that, new listings are down 35.5% for the same period.
Here’s why I don’t care about these numbers at face value. They suggest the market is absolutely tanking. I mean take a look at media channels, on one hand they’ll report on sales being ridiculously low so the market has crashed, and on the other talk about how hard it is to purchase a home. As separate points they add zero value and just confuse people. This is why the trends are what matter most! I can’t stress this enough, especially now.
If you’re sitting there thinking you wanna get ahead of the market and catch it at it’s bottom, consider me a neon sign in your face!! Now here is where it gets interesting …
The Home Price Index, basically the average cost for a home in Metro Vancouver, sits at $1,143,900. Why is that relevant? Because it’s an increase of 1.8% from February, which was a 1.1% increase from January.
Our sales to active listings ratio, which basically determines the ratio between available properties and sales in the form of a percentage point, sits at 30.7%. Just to show how mental that is, the 20% figure is deemed a sellers market. Again though, don’t look at the number, look at the trend. That figure was 23% in February, which is still sellers market territory i’ll add) and was 13.7% in January. The main point here is the trend upwards of this number, as well as the home price index.
The market is shifting, and by this latest report, we’ve certainly hit bottom and things are moving in the opposite way now. With minimal inventory likely to come to market, it’s only going to get worse. Leading the way once again for happy sellers, frustrated buyers.
Don’t forget, this is all happening while we have high interest rates, record low supply, and record low sales numbers. The projected outcome for 2023 was a possible uptick in prices by one or two percent for the year. We’ve already notched that out the way 3 months in.
The trend is moving upwards! If you’d just looked at inventory and supply numbers you’d literally be missing out on everything, and in this city, that's a kicker to your wallet to say the least! Ouch!!!
Watch this space the moment we hit higher levels of inventory. I’m making the call today, sales will shift upwards significantly at that point as well. That’s when the masses find out and you’ve missed your real chance.
Finally, before we wrap up. Don’t forget, these numbers are delayed by nature. It’s obviously impossible to gather these figures in real time, so these numbers reflect the market in March. We’re in April now and things have already had the chance to progress further down the path.
That’s it from me today everyone! send me a message if you have questions or want to continue the conversation. You can also check out the video versions of these blogs here! Don't forget to hit like and subscribe!
Ben Robinson PREC*
C: 604.353.8523
E: Ben@benrobinsonhomes.ca